Saturday 15, Febr,2025 {HMC} Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed met on Friday during the 38th African Union (AU) Summit in Addis Ababa. It was their first face-to-face talks since signing the Ankara Declaration in December 2024, a diplomatic breakthrough to ease apprehensions after a yearlong rift between the two nations.
The meeting focused on restoring full diplomatic engagement, strengthening security cooperation, and negotiating Ethiopia’s contested bid for maritime access through Somalia. Their discussion follows a period of heightened tensions triggered by Ethiopia’s controversial Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland in early 2024. As part of the deal, Ethiopia would secure 20 kilometres of coastline for a naval base in exchange for potential recognition of Somaliland’s independence.
Somalia, which considers Somaliland part of its sovereign territory, viewed the agreement as an unacceptable violation of its territorial integrity. In response, Mogadishu cut diplomatic ties with Ethiopia, recalled its ambassador, and threatened to expel Ethiopian troops from Somalia.
Amid the rapidly deteriorating situation, Turkey stepped in to mediate, leading to the signing of the Ankara Declaration on December 11, 2024. The agreement de-escalated hostilities and established a framework for diplomatic negotiations. Ethiopia agreed to work toward securing commercial access to the Red Sea through Somalia under a negotiated settlement while implicitly backing away from its contentious naval base agreement with Somaliland. In January 2025, the two nations restored full diplomatic representation, opening the door for further discussions.
A major focus of the Addis Ababa meeting was the future of Ethiopian troops in Somalia. Just half a year ago, Mogadishu had vowed to cut all ties with Addis Ababa, threatening to expel Ethiopian troops over what it saw as an unforgivable violation of its sovereignty. Ethiopia, which had previously stationed up to 10,000 soldiers under ATMIS, intends to maintain a military presence under AUSSOM to continue operations against al-Shabaab insurgents.
Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Omar ‘Balcad’ confirmed that Somalia is working to include Ethiopia within AUSSOM’s troop structure, though most quotas have already been allocated. A Somali delegation is set to visit Ethiopia to resolve outstanding issues, including troop numbers and command structures, ensuring that Ethiopian involvement aligns with Somalia’s sovereignty and security interests.
Beyond politics and security, the economic implications of Ethiopia’s pursuit of sea access were a likely key topic of discussion in Addis Ababa. Ethiopia, which currently depends on Djibouti for 95% of its maritime trade, has long sought alternative routes to the sea to diversify its trade infrastructure. While Somalia stands to benefit from port agreements with Ethiopia, Mogadishu seems wary of setting a precedent that could compromise its sovereignty over coastal territories.
The ports of Mogadishu and Kismayo have been floated as the most viable options for Ethiopian trade, but significant logistical and security challenges remain. Chief among them is the presence of al-Shabaab, which continues to control or threaten key transport corridors linking Ethiopia to Somali ports.
Security challenges also persist as al-Shabaab continues to exploit regional instability, launching attacks aimed at weakening state authority and disrupting diplomatic progress. Meanwhile, internal Somali political divisions remain deep, with opposition factions expressing skepticism about any agreement that accommodates Ethiopian ambitions.
While the meeting in Addis Ababa marked a watershed moment in the reconciliation between Somalia and Ethiopia, several critical issues remain unresolved. Ethiopia has yet to formally withdraw from its MoU with Somaliland, raising concerns in Mogadishu that Addis Ababa may still be pursuing a dual-track maritime strategy.
Source Hiiraan online
