Thursday 2,Jan, 2025 {HMC}ย The future of U.S. military operations in Somalia hangs in the balance as the Trump administration reconsiders its strategic footprint in the country. With insurgent violence persisting and Somalia’s stability at stake, this decision could reverberate across Africa and beyond.
The Trump administration’s 2020 decision to withdraw nearly all U.S. troops from Somalia marked a turning point in the country’s fragile security efforts. The move left the Somali National Army (SNA) and the elite Danab Brigadeโa U.S.-trained unitโstruggling to counter al-Shabaab without critical operational support. Critics argued that the move undermined counterterrorism efforts, while supporters highlighted it as part of a broader “America First” policy.
Experts warn that the absence of American forces could embolden the insurgent group, which has maintained its position as one of East Africa’s most resilient threats.
J. Peter Pham, the former U.S. Special Envoy for the Sahel, warned that Somalia remains a flashpoint for instability. “I would expect that President Trump will want to reverse course and restore things to where he intended at the end of 2020,” Pham told the daily American military newspaper Stars and Stripes Sunday.
“Quite frankly, as the corruption of even allegedly elite units like Danab has underscored, we do not have an effective partner in Mogadishu, and there are no U.S. national security interests that justify risking American treasure โ much less American blood โ in Somalia that cannot be handled offshore or from nearby bases,” Pham added.
Critics like former Defense Secretary Mark Esper have questioned the value of sustained U.S. military interventions in Africa. Esper argued for realigning defence policies to address the continent’s realities, emphasizing a strategic pivot toward the Pacific as a greater priority for U.S. national security.
The U.S. military’s withdrawal from Somalia under the Trump administration may be influenced by broader ideological and geopolitical strategies, including potential support for Somaliland’s independence.
Project 2025, a conservative policy roadmap, has proposed recognizing Somaliland as an independent state, viewing it as a strategic counterbalance to China’s influence in Djibouti. While Trump himself has distanced himself from direct involvement in the project, several of his former advisors and allies have advocated for its foreign policy components.
However, military planners recognize that the challenges extend beyond Somalia’s borders. A weakened Somali state could destabilize neighbouring countries, including Kenya and Ethiopia, which share security concerns over al-Shabaab’s regional activities.
Somali officials have expressed alarm over the potential long-term effects of the U.S. withdrawal, emphasizing that consistent international support remains critical to stabilizing the country. The Somali government has also sought to strengthen ties with regional partners and international stakeholders to address the potential security vacuum if American forces depart.
