Thursday 19,Dec 2024 {HMC} China’s special envoy for the Horn of Africa Xue Bing has visited Somalia to assure the nation of Beijing’s support, amid a push by Washington officials for recognition of the breakaway region of Somaliland.
Xue, who was appointed in 2022 to mediate regional crises, told Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud that China “supports Somalia in safeguarding its national sovereignty and territorial integrity” during his visit to capital Mogadishu on Tuesday.
It follows the December 12 inauguration of Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, also known as Irro, as the new Somaliland president. Located on the Gulf of Aden coastline, Somaliland proclaimed its independence in 1991 but has not been recognised by any country. Mogadishu continues to consider the region part of northern Somalia.
Last week’s swearing-in ceremony was attended by Taiwan’s deputy foreign minister Wu Chih-Chung, leading to a protest by China, with Beijing saying it opposes the “establishment of official institutions or any form of official exchanges between Taiwan authorities and Somaliland”.
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of its territory, to be brought under mainland control by force, if necessary. Most countries, including the United States, do not recognise the island as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any unilateral change to the status quo.
The US was also represented at Irro’s inauguration, with US Ambassador to Somalia Richard H. Riley leading a delegation as he praised Somaliland’s “commitment to fair and credible elections and the peaceful transfer of power”.
It follows growing calls for Washington to recognise Somaliland as America prepares for Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January.
Support for the breakaway region has been growing among Republican US-Africa policy leaders on Capitol Hill, right-leaning Washington DC think tanks and Africa advisers in Trump’s incoming administration, according to US-based news outlet Semafor.
US Republican congressman Scott Perry last week introduced a bill calling on the US government to recognise Somaliland “as a separate, independent country”. The bill, which would still need to get through Congress before it could be signed into law by the president, hails Somaliland’s record of peaceful elections and commitment to democratic governance. This is in sharp contrast with Somalia, which continues to grapple with Islamic extremist rebel group al-Shabab.
Somaliland was also part of the agenda of Project 2025, a controversial policy wish list created by right-wing US think tank The Heritage Foundation, which has been widely viewed as a blueprint for Trump’s next administration. Trump has repeatedly distanced himself from the document, though many of its themes have aligned with his statements.
In the Project 2025 document, it called for “the recognition of Somaliland statehood as a hedge against the US’s deteriorating position in Djibouti”.
Joshua Meservey, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute think tank in Washington who focuses on great power competition in Africa, said while it was “possible” for the Trump administration to recognise Somaliland, it might not happen soon.
“[Trump’s] team will have to get in place and do a strategic review before any such decisions are made,” Meservey said. He also noted that Mogadishu would react strongly to any such move.
Mogadishu might also try to draw closer to US competitors such as China, Iran or Russia, “but the country is so unstable and the government so dysfunctional that it wouldn’t be a very tempting partner for those countries beyond some limited involvement”, Meservey said.
John Calabrese, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said at least two of Trump’s more competent nominees for key national security positions – Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz – are both China “hawks”. They not only regard China as the number one peer competitor, but also as an adversary, Calabrese said.
“So, to the extent that they believe recognising Somaliland would advance US objectives to counter China in the Horn, they might stake out that position,” he said.
China and the US are both angling for influence in the Horn of Africa, where the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Gulf of Aden, between Somaliland’s Port of Berbera, Djibouti and Yemen, is one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes.
In Djibouti, Chinese firms have funded and built projects such as the Doraleh multipurpose port and the Djibouti free-trade zone. Beijing also opened its first overseas naval military base in Djibouti in 2017 to protect its interests and citizens in the region.
The US, meanwhile, has been eyeing access to Somaliland’s Port of Berbera as an alternative to its Djibouti military base, Camp Lemonnier, to counter China’s influence in the region as well as to protect trade routes amid Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea.
According to Guled Ahmed, a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute, the recognition of Somaliland was studied by the African Union back in 2005, when it was determined that it was justified and unique and would not open a Pandora’s box.
He said, from a geopolitical aspect, it will improve maritime security in the Red Sea and “become a successful democratic model for inspiration in the troubled Horn of Africa”.
Seifudein Adem, an Ethiopian global affairs expert and a research fellow at the JICA Ogata Research Institute for Peace and Development in Tokyo, said China’s diplomacy in the region would meet headwinds should the US recognise Somaliland.
If it got US recognition, Somaliland may upgrade and formalise its diplomatic relationship with Taiwan, he said.
Plus, stronger ties between an independent Somaliland and Ethiopia could amplify the profile of any relationship between Somaliland and Taiwan, at least in Africa, he said.
