Wednesday 11,Dec 2024 {HMC} Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed are set to meet in Ankara on Tuesday for the third round of talks to resolve escalating tensions over Ethiopia’s controversial agreement with Somaliland.
This meeting will mark the first direct engagement between the two leaders since Addis Ababa announced a deal granting access to Somaliland’s Berbera Port in exchange for potential recognition of Somaliland’s independence. Mogadishu has fiercely condemned the agreement, labelling it an illegal infringement on Somalia’s sovereignty. Ethiopia, however, maintains that the deal aligns with its strategic interests and does not violate Somalia’s territorial integrity.
The Ethiopia-Somaliland agreement has exacerbated already fragile relations between Ethiopia and Somalia. Somaliland, a self-governing territory that declared independence from Somalia in 1991 but lacks international recognition, has emerged as a critical flashpoint in the region. Somalia views Somaliland as an integral part of its territory and has sought to undermine any agreements that legitimize its independence bid.
Adding to the tensions, Somalia accused Ethiopia of deploying arms to the port city of Kismayo to stoke divisions between Mogadishu and the Jubaland administration. Ethiopian officials have yet to comment on these allegations, while Jubaland leaders have dismissed them as baseless.
The talks, hosted by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, reflect Ankara’s deepening role as a mediator in the Horn of Africa, where regional disputes threaten stability. Ankara has hosted two prior rounds of talks, but progress has been limited. Turkish officials have emphasized the importance of finding a resolution that ensures regional stability.
Turkey’s growing influence in Somalia is evident in its extensive defence and economic agreements. Earlier this year, Ankara and Mogadishu finalized a naval agreement to secure Somali territorial waters and bolster its maritime security. Turkish energy exploration efforts along Somalia’s coastline further underline the depth of their bilateral ties.
For Ethiopia, Turkey remains a significant partner, having provided military support through drone sales that played a pivotal role in Ethiopia’s conflict with Tigray forces. These multifaceted relationships place Ankara in a unique position to mediate the ongoing tensions.
The stakes for this week’s talks extend beyond Somalia and Ethiopia. The Horn of Africa’s strategic location at the intersection of the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean amplifies the significance of regional disputes. Ethiopia’s growing ties with Somaliland have drawn criticism from Egypt, a long-standing rival over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, further complicating the regional landscape.
Analysts have noted that Somalia’s burgeoning relationship with Egypt and recent defence agreements with Tanzania signal a broader effort to counter Ethiopia’s influence.
While previous negotiations have stalled, the upcoming meeting could prove pivotal. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud firmly stated that any talks regarding sea access or commercial agreements with Ethiopia would remain on hold until Addis Ababa formally acknowledges Somalia’s sovereignty. Analysts suggest that Ethiopia may offer to withdraw from its Somaliland agreement in exchange for access to Somali ports closer to the Ethiopian border.
