Wednesday 4,Dec,2024 {HMC} Somaliland’s President-elect Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi Irro has reportedly thrown his weight behind an ambitious agreement between Somaliland and Ethiopia.
Irro, who won a historic 64% of the vote in Somaliland’s November 13 election, has pledged to review the deal upon taking office on December 13.
Signed on January 1, 2024, the MoU grants Ethiopia a 50-year lease on a 20-kilometre stretch of Somaliland’s coastline in exchange for Ethiopian support for Somaliland’s bid for international recognition for its self-declared independence. However, the deal remains stalled nearly a year later, reflecting the political and logistical challenges of implementing such a high-stakes arrangement.
According to reports from Africa Confidential, Irro expressed unwavering support for the understanding, describing it as a critical step toward Somaliland’s decades-long quest for international recognition.
Irro, however, admitted he had yet to examine the agreement in detail, promising to do so upon taking office. In a recent meeting with outgoing President Muse Bihi, Irro discussed the contentious deal, signalling his intent to prioritize it during the early days of his administration.
The agreement has drawn sharp rebuke from Somalia, which considers it a violation of its territorial sovereignty. Mogadishu does not recognize Somaliland’s 1991 declaration of independence and has called the deal “a dangerous precedent.”
At the United Nations General Assembly in September, Somali Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre alleged that Ethiopia’s actions could embolden secessionist movements and destabilize the region, further complicating Somalia’s struggle to maintain unity.
The following month, Somalia expelled Ethiopian diplomat Ali Mohamed Adan, accusing him of engaging in activities incompatible with his diplomatic role. The Somali Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared Adan, who served as Counselor II at the Ethiopian embassy in Mogadishu, persona non grata and ordered him to leave the country within 72 hours.
Somali Ambassador to Tanzania Ilyas Ali Hassan reiterated Mogadishu’s stance this week, declaring the agreement “a reckless violation of Somalia’s territorial integrity.” Backed by allies like Egypt and Eritrea, Somalia has rallied international support to pressure Ethiopia into abandoning the pact.
Djibouti, Ethiopia’s primary trade partner and regional transit hub, has also opposed the agreement, with many analysts believing it could undermine its economic position. Ethiopia currently relies on Djibouti for more than 90% of its maritime trade, making any shift toward Somaliland a potentially seismic development in regional logistics.
For Ethiopia, the deal offers an opportunity to diversify its trade routes and reduce reliance on Djibouti’s ports.
Despite previously making bold statements about securing Red Sea port access by any means necessary, including military power, earlier this month, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said his country was committed to obtaining access to the Red Sea “through peaceful means.” Speaking to lawmakers in Ethiopia’s Parliament, Abiy reiterated his government’s “clear stance” on the issue, stressing that Ethiopia’s national interest lies in securing a maritime outlet.
Somaliland hopes the deal could mark a breakthrough in its long-standing diplomatic isolation. Yet, the agreement’s failure to progress beyond its initial signing highlights the complex web of domestic and international resistance.
Efforts at mediation have so far been inconclusive. Kenya, Uganda, and Turkey have attempted to broker talks, but entrenched positions on both sides have left the agreement unresolved. Ethiopia’s delay in implementing the deal is widely seen as a result of persistent lobbying and diplomatic pressure from Mogadishu.
