Tuesday August 27, 2024 {HMC} Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government seeks to shore up trade and strategic interests across the continent
Last month, passenger trains pulled out of the Tanzanian port city of Dar es Salaam towards the capital Dodoma for the first time, a distance of more than 450km. Beaming posts on social media showed President Dr Samia Suluhu Hassan waving off some of the first passengers.
The line, part of a major $7.6 billion railway project stretching more than 1,200km, was built by Turkish company Yapi Merkezi, whose previous projects included the Dubai Metro and Makkah and Madinah train stations. The giant Turkish firm is already working on its next African project: another major railway line in Uganda.
Since 1972, Turkish contracting firms have completed 1,977 projects worth $91.5 billion in Africa, a Trade Ministry official told The National.
But the two projects in Tanzania and Uganda are part of a new push by the Turkish government into Africa – not only to find new markets for Turkish businesses as the domestic economy continues to struggle, but also, according to observers, to strengthen the middle power’s long-term strategic interests in the face of competition from the Middle East, Russia, and China.
“Ankara’s increasing engagement on the continent is not, of course, solely driven by its short-term interests or economic concerns,” said Elem Eyrice Tepeciklioglu, an associate professor at the Department of African Studies at the Social Sciences University of Ankara.
Turkey has “ambitions to extend its area of influence beyond its immediate neighbourhood” in the Middle East and Europe, she added.
This strategy aligns with Ankara’s recent efforts to repair diplomatic relations with former adversaries, particularly in the Middle East, as part of a broader initiative to seize economic opportunities and address regional security challenges.
For Abel Abate Demissie, an associate fellow at Chatham House’s Africa programme, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan aims to re-establish Turkish influence in some areas where the Ottoman Empire previously held sway, particularly in North Africa and the Horn of Africa during its peak. Meanwhile, many countries in the Horn of Africa have struggled to establish stable governance while facing extremist insurgencies, such as Al Shabab. Coupled with the disengagement of traditional western partners, these nations have been exploring new alliances.
“There is a niche for the middle powers in the Horn of Africa,” said Mr Demissie. “Many of the countries are trying to court as many partners as possible, because the role of the west is significantly diminishing.”
In Somalia, Ankara has built diplomatic, trade and military relationships over the years, recognising the country’s geographically strategic position and economic potential. The East African nation has been beset by conflict, extremist insurgency and famine for decades. Other countries have stepped in to back up its military, while securing interests in its multiple ports on a key shipping lane through the Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea.
Turkish conglomerate Albayrak runs Mogadishu port in Somalia’s capital, and a Turkish firm also runs the city’s airport. Last month, Turkey’s Parliament agreed to extend the country’s troops’ presence in Somalia for another two years, an indicator of its interest in maintaining a military footprint in the East African nation.
Mahad Wasuge, executive director of the Mogadishu-based Somali Public Agenda think tank, noted that foreign interest in the African nation is primarily driven by commerce and security. He added that Ankara has gradually built up goodwill and relationships in the country, positioning itself for more significant investments and long-term activities.
“We have multiple ports, but they are not functioning properly,” he told The National. “That is why there has been interest in getting access to our waters, when we have all these coastlines doing nothing.
“I would say everything is in a rudimentary and basic stage, so the potential in almost every sector is huge.”
Other observers point out that Turkey is not actively looking to rival other countries in Africa, especially Arab nations, but to secure its interests in a place where others are looking out for their own, too.
Turkey’s relations with vital Arab countries have been strained in the last decade due to differing visions over conflicts in the Middle East, from Libya to Syria’s civil war. However, those relations have significantly improved in recent years. Regional security concerns and economic goals have primarily driven President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s proactive approach. The shift led to the mending of diplomatic ties, high-level visits, and agreements on trade and investment, fostering stronger political and economic alliances within regional powerhouses such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt.
“Looking at the competition among global and regional actors across the continent, Turkey’s stance aligns with stability, standing with the people against destabilising initiatives, respecting international law, and working with legitimate governments,” said Tunc Demirtas, foreign policy researcher at Seta, a Turkish think tank close to the government.
However, there are concerns that Turkey’s expansion into Africa is closely tied to President Erdogan’s two decades of rule, with many of the relationships with African leaders being rooted in personal friendships, creating potential long-term fragility.
“While these strong personal connections – such as the one between Erdogan and Liberia’s [former president] George Weah, who share a background in football – have benefited Turkey, they also create vulnerabilities,” said Selin Gucum, a political strategist who has written on Africa.
“On one hand, this raises concerns about Turkey’s ability to maintain the same level of relations in the event of a change in government in Ankara. On the other hand, similar concerns arise (if) an African government is overthrown by a coup.”
Significant opportunities
In Ethiopia, which has ongoing disputes with Somalia over sea access, Turkish officials recognize that the Horn of Africa nation offers significant opportunities for investment in agriculture, infrastructure, and energy, which explains Ankara’s interest.
“As a country which has historical ties with Ethiopia and the region, as well as a country who invested in the region, it is not surprising to see that Ankara has an interest in the Horn of Africa’s peace and stability,” Nebiyu Tedla, Ethiopia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, told The National.
“This is also due to the fact that the Horn of Africa is strategically located near key maritime routes, including the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.”
Some critics expressed concerns that Turkish companies may prioritize their own interests over those of their African partners.
In 2021, the Federation of Somali Trade Unions released an 18-page report accusing Favori LLC, the subsidiary of Turkish firm Kozuva Group that runs Mogadishu airport, of “poverty wages,” providing a “hazardous working environment” and offering some Somali officials kickbacks and holidays in Turkey. The National did not receive a response to a request for comment from Favori LLC and could not verify the claims independently.
Turkey’s business ambitions stretch from Algeria to South Africa, and in everything from home furnishings to roads and bridges. They face competition from countries like China, whose Belt and Road Initiative has resulted in major transport infrastructure projects across the continent but has also attracted claims of leaving some African nations with significant debts.
“The Turkish private sector has leverage in sub-Saharan Africa; it is very pragmatic,” a Turkish businessman familiar with the African market told The National.
“Turkish companies are providing both cheap and high-quality goods and services to Africa. It can compete with Chinese goods, and Turkish goods are better.”
In 2023, Turkish exports to North African countries were worth $13.7 billion, up from $10.9 billion a decade earlier. Exports to sub-Saharan Africa totalled $7.7 billion last year, up from $4.4 billion in 2013, according to Turkish Statistics Institute data.
These figures indicate that exports to Africa account for only about 8 per cent of Turkey’s global sales, with the EU remaining Ankara’s largest trade partner by a wide margin. However, there are ambitions to significantly increase exports to the continent. Last year, the head of Turkey’s foreign economic relations board announced a target of reaching a total Africa-Turkey trade volume of $75 billion. Turkish Airlines, the country’s flag carrier, supports this goal by flying to over 50 destinations across Africa, from Tunis to Cape Town.
Long-term goals
Turkey is also looking into strategic and high-value industries in Africa. Last month, a large Turkish delegation travelled to Niger, following an order from the west African country for western military personnel to leave.
The nation of 27 million people suffers from high levels of poverty but is also home to significant uranium and gold reserves, which Turkey is viewing with interest as it attempts to diversify and secure future supplies of energy and strategic assets. A net fuel importer, Turkey is currently heavily reliant on natural gas from Russia and Iran. It appears to be looking to Africa to change that.
Turkish official sources confirmed to The National that the country sees “significant opportunities” in Niger in terms of securing long-term uranium supplies for future nuclear power production, “untapped” oil and gas reserves in the Agadem Basin in the country’s south-east and opportunities for Turkish companies to invest in renewables.
During the visit, Turkey’s Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Alparslan Bayraktar signed a declaration of intent for closer co-operation with his counterpart in Niger, Minister of Petroleum Mahaman Moustapha Barke Bako. That came alongside an agreement signed with Somalia’s Petroleum Authority for Turkey to explore three maritime oil and gas blocks in the country.
Turkey’s state-owned mining company is already actively working in three of Niger’s gold-mine licensing areas, authorities in Ankara confirmed. Turkey sees gold as a strategic asset, serving as a hedge against economic instability, especially important given the country’s years-long crisis that has caused a crash in the value of the Turkish lira and soaring inflation.
It is also seeking markets across Africa for its domestically produced military drones.
A December 2023 tally by the International Crisis Group think tank found that countries across Africa, from Mali to Somalia, own Turkish-made drones, often using them against Islamist extremists and other insurgents.
“This also has something to do with arms sales,” said Ms Eyrice Tepeciklioglu, regarding the Niger visit. “Turkish military equipment is very popular, so this is also related to Turkey’s rising national defence industry – looking for more new markets with each country.”
There are other factors to consider: International Crisis Group warned that, like other drone exporters, Turkey may face the challenge of knowing whether purchasing countries will use the drones in line with international law. “Some [buyers] may fail to fully consider, or may discount, the dangers to civilians of using drones in counter-terrorism operations, including urban ones, or in policing operations,” the group’s 2023 report said.
Diplomatic manoeuvres
Trade and military co-operation come alongside a growing Turkish diplomatic presence in Africa. In 2002 it had only 12 embassies on the continent. Today, that number has risen to 44 embassies and six consulates, a Turkish diplomatic official confirmed.
Part of a developing Africa policy has seen Ankara move from a provider of humanitarian aid and security co-operation to seeking opportunities to boost its reputation as a mediator. In one example, Turkey is acting as a peacemaker in long-term disputes between Somalia and Ethiopia. The move fits into a broader pattern of Ankara’s attempts to play middle man such as in conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, and Israel and Hamas.
This month Turkey hosted a second round of talks between officials from Ethiopia and Somalia, nicknamed “the Ankara Process.” The countries’ differences intensified this year when Ethiopia and Somaliland signed a preliminary agreement allowing Addis Ababa access to the sea through the region in exchange for recognition of its independence. Ethiopia believes it should have access to the waters, whereas Somalia sees Somaliland as part of its territory and believes Ethiopia is attempting to harm its sovereignty.
Turkey has had to tread carefully in balancing relations between both countries over the course of their most recent dispute.
“There was a tendency [by Turkey] to side with Somalia, so there was some displeasure that we saw in Ethiopia – they didn’t think Turkey would do this to the cordial relationship the countries enjoy at the moment,” said Mr Demissie of Chatham House. “I think that created some discussions behind the doors between Ankara and Addis Ababa, for Turkey to take on this negotiating role.”
The talks are marathon in scale and reaching a solution will not be easy – another round of negotiations is scheduled for next month.
“No one has a magic wand – expecting miracles to be created overnight would be wrong,” said Mr Demirtas of Seta. “Regardless of where this process leads, it is a significant achievement for Turkey to bring together two countries, which have been in conflict and competition for centuries and have experienced severe tensions recently, under the same roof.”
According to Mr Demissie, based on conversations with diplomatic sources, drawn-out mediation may represent, “a conundrum” for Turkey. “It’s hard to see what options they have while the negotiations are being dragged out and the memorandum of understanding becomes a fait accompli”.
African voices supporting Ankara say it is less interested in controlling the internal affairs of African countries than former colonial powers on the continent. Alongside closer cultural ties to many Muslim African nations, and for many in Africa, Turkey seems more welcome than European and western powers.
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By Lizzie Porter
